According to USDA's October Crop Production report, the 2006 US cotton crop is forecast at about 20.7 million bales, 1.5 percent above the previous month but still nearly 14 percent below last season's record.
The upland crop is forecast at 19.9 million bales—up 335,000 bales from September—while the extra-long staple (ELS) production is projected at 804,000 bales—21,000 bales lower than last month.
During the last 20 years, the October forecast has been below final cotton production 14 times while above the final estimate 6 times.
Also, past differences between the October forecast and the final production estimate indicate that chances are two out of three for the 2006 US cotton crop to range between 19.7 and 21.6 million bales.
Compared with last month, US cotton production changed marginally in each region, except the Delta where the crop forecast improved by 255,000 bales.
While the Delta is expected to reach a record 8.2 million bales this season, the other three regions are expected to have significantly lower crops.
In the Southwest, where a record 8.9 million bales were produced last season, output is expected to drop to 5.7 million bales despite larger area.
Similarly, the Southeast is projected to produce a crop of about 4.5 million bales, down from last year but near the 5-year average.
Area is higher here but the region's yield is well below last season's record. In the West, declining area continues to reduce output; in 2006, production is forecast at 1.4 million bales, below both last season and the 5-year average.
United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
marketing@alchempro.com
