The U.S. cotton demand forecast for 2006/07 was lowered 400,000 bales in October, as exports and mill use were each reduced 200,000 bales. Exports are now forecast at 16 million bales for 2006/07, approximately 2 million below last season's revised final estimate.
A larger global supply estimate this month, coupled with lower world consumption and trade projections, led to the reduced U.S. export forecast. And, at 16 million bales, U.S. exports are expected to account for about 38 percent of world trade, down slightly from 40 percent in 2005/06.
The U.S. cotton mill use forecast was reduced this month to 5.3 million bales, as the domestic textile and apparel industry continues to show signs of weakness.
With robust cotton clothing imports continuing, the cotton used in U.S. mills is expected to fall to its lowest level since 1981/82.
As a result, total demand for U.S. cotton is expected to reach 21.3 million bales, below last season's record but above production.
Consequently, ending stocks are projected to decline this season from the revised beginning stock estimate of nearly 6.1 million bales to 5.4 million at the end of 2006/07. However, the stocks-to-use ratio in 2006/07 is expected to remain near last season's 25 percent.
United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
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