2006/07 Caveats The main supply caveat is harvest time weather conditions in those areas still harvesting. For the week ending December 1, West Texas's good harvest weather ended mid-week with the coming of winter storms.
The West Texas harvest is reportedly about two thirds complete. The regional weather, crop, and harvest situations are monitored by numerous information sources, e.g., in statewide weather summaries, in regional columns such as my colleague Jay Yates' South Plains Cotton Update and in weekly reports by the USDA National Agric. Statistics Service Crop Progress reports. Updated (as of late November 27) harvest figures by state are available here.
2007/08 Forecast and Caveats Looking ahead to new crop outlook, the conventional forecaster's approach is to make assumptions based on historical averages.
For the week ending November 24, Dec07 futures traded between 5800 and 5980. This is shown as the red line in the seasonal graph.
Depending on whether 2007/08 is in fact a reduced carryover year (purple line) or another stable carryover year (green line) Dec07 could follow a stronger or more negligible 1st quarter price rally.
marketing@alchempro.com
