The new model developed by the Secretariat forecasts a season-average Cotlook A Index of 71 cents per pound in 2007/08. This projected price increase from the 2006/07 season-average of 59 cents per pound is the result of an expected significant decrease in the ratio of stocks to mill use in the world-less-China (Mainland) in 2007/08.
World cotton production is forecast down slightly to 25.1 million tons in 2007/08, whereas consumption is expected to continue to increase by 2% to 26.9 million tons. Therefore, world ending stocks are forecast down by 14% to 10.4 million tons in 2007/08. World cotton trade is expected to rebound to 9.0 million tons, driven by larger Chinese imports.
Exports by the United States, Uzbekistan and Brazil are expected to increase, exports by India to remain stable, but exports by the CFA zone and Australia are forecast significantly down.
An expected fall in U.S. production in 2007/08 could more than offset projected increases in India, Pakistan and China (Mainland). India's production is forecast at 5.0 million tons in 2007/08; this would make it the second largest producer. Asia is expected to account for 58% of world cotton production and 75% of world cotton mill use in 2007/08.
International Cotton Advisory Committee
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