This month's U.S. 2007/08 cotton forecasts show lower production, disappearance, and ending stocks. USDA's first survey-based production estimate is 17.35 million bales, marginally below last month's projection. Beginning stocks are at 9,7 million bales.
Domestic mill use is increased 200,000 bales to 4.6 million, reflecting higher than anticipated mill use in recent months. Exports are reduced 2 percent to 16.7 million bales, due to larger foreign supplies and slightly lower import demand by China.
Ending stocks of 5.8 million bales, equivalent to 27 percent of total use, are 100,000 bales below last month. The world 2007/08 forecasts include higher production and consumption, lower world trade, and larger ending stocks relative to last month.
Beginning stocks are raised about 1 percent due mainly to prior-year adjustments for Brazil, India, Egypt, and Pakistan. Production is raised in India, Brazil, and Turkmenistan, but lowered in Greece, Turkey, the African Franc Zone, and the
United States.
Consumption is raised for Brazil beginning in 2002/03, due to revisions in the official government statistics. World trade is lower as China's imports are reduced based on recent activity.
The residual category is raised due to adjustments for China, Brazil, and the United States. World stocks are now forecast at 51.5 million bales, 1.5 percent above last month.
United States Department of Agriculture
marketing@alchempro.com
