2007/08 production forecast slightly lower in August
17 Aug '07
3 min read
According to USDA's first survey-based forecast of 2007 cotton production, the U.S. crop is projected at 17.35 million bales, marginally below July's forecast and the lowest in 5 years. The production decline is largely the result of lower area planted to cotton this season.
Prices for competing crops, particularly corn, at planting time provided a viable alternative to many producers this spring. Weather related problems also contributed to lower planted area in some parts of the Cotton Belt. Upland production is projected at 16.5 million bales, 21 percent below the 2006 crop, while the extra-long staple (ELS) crop is forecast at 808,500 bales, nearly 6 percent above last season.
During the previous 20 years, the August forecast was below the final cotton production estimate 12 times and above it 8 times. Past differences between the August forecast and the final production estimate indicate that chances are two out of three for the 2007 U.S. cotton crop to range between 15.8 and 18.9 million bales.
Compared with last season, upland production is projected to decrease in three of the four Cotton Belt regions in 2007. Only the Southwest region's crop is forecast to be above that of 2006. Upland cotton production in the Southwest is currently projected at 6.4 million bales, up slightly from last season but well below the large crops of 2004 and 2005. The region's crop is boosted by a low 6-percent abandonment estimate, compared with 36 percent in 2006.
marketing@alchempro.com
