Weather Conditions:
The irrigation catchment areas for the majority of Australia's cotton growing regions (New South Wales and Southern Queensland) have received valuable rainfall in the second half of June, with some follow-up rain in the first half of July.
This rain, which was relatively heavy in some areas, has not yet replenished irrigation water storages; however it has provided a profile of soil moisture such that further heavy rainfall would likely see significant inflows and consequently significant improvements in supplies of irrigation water. Cotton growing areas have also received useful, although somewhat lesser, rainfall.
Despite useful falls of rain, the chance of cotton production in 07/08 rising from record low levels seems unlikely. Rainfall for the months of September and October would need to be substantially above average for prospects to improve tangibly.
Irrigation water supplies:
At the time of writing this report, cotton producers in northern NSW are not expecting a general allocation of irrigation water which would allow significant production of cotton. These growers represent perhaps half of Australian cotton production. Cotton grown in northern NSW, as well much of the cotton grown in other areas will rely on underground water and water that can be harvested from other sources (such as on farm storage).
Although irrigation water reservoirs have gained some water in recent months, they have not yet reached levels where crops such as cotton can be allocated water. Government reports concerning irrigation water reserves show that additional water availability would likely initially be made available for uses other than broad acre crop production.
Regional towns, livestock, industry and environmental requirements all receive priority over crop production such as cotton. At this point in time, there is almost enough water left in the system to account for non-agricultural uses.
Assuming inflows into the system over the next three months are sufficient to continue to increase water storage levels, the first agricultural users to receive water will be those who have “carry over” water allocations, or those who had water entitlement “suspended” during trade.
Assuming those needs are met, the next users will be “high security” water users – typically tree and vine fruit producers (citrus, stone fruit, viticulture etc). The last group to receive irrigation water will likely be broad acre agricultural users who are considered general allocation (rice, cotton etc).
United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service
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