According to USDA's September forecast of the 2007 cotton crop, U.S. production is projected at 17.8 million bales, about 500,000 bales above the August forecast but 17.5 percent below last season's crop. U.S. crop conditions have remained relatively stable this season, averaging slightly below the 5-year average.
Upland production is projected at 17 million bales, 3.8 million below 2006, while the extralong staple (ELS) crop is expected to reach 793,000 bales, nearly 4 percent above last season.
During the previous 20 years, the September forecast has been above final cotton production 7 times and below 13 times. Past differences between the September forecast and the final production estimate indicate that chances are two out of three that the 2007 U.S. cotton crop will range between 16.6 and 19.0 million bales.
Compared with last season, upland production is expected to be lower in three of the Cotton Belt regions. Only the Southwest region is forecast to produce a larger crop in 2007 than in 2006. Southwest production is projected at nearly 7.3 million bales, 19 percent above last season but 22 percent below the 2005 crop of nearly 8.9 million bales.
In the Delta, cotton production is estimated at about 5.4 million bales, the lowest since 2000/01 as cotton area declined this season. Alternative crop plantings this spring forced cotton area to its lowest since 1986/87.
Similarly for the Southeast, cotton area was reduced this season to its lowest since 1994/95, while production is estimated at about 3.2 million bales, the lowest since 1993/94.
marketing@alchempro.com
