USDA's October Crop Production report indicated that the 2007 U.S. cotton crop would total nearly 18.2 million bales, 340,000 bales (2 percent) above September's forecast but still 16 percent below 2006/07.
The upland crop is forecast at nearly 17.4 million bales—up 359,000 bales from September—while the extra-long staple (ELS) production is projected at about 776,000 bales—17,000 bales below last month.
During the last 20 years, the October forecast has been below final cotton production 15 times while above the final estimate 5 times. In addition, past differences between the October forecast and the final production estimate indicate that chances are two out of three for the 2007 U.S. cotton crop to range between 17.3 and 19.0 million bales.
Compared with last month, the October U.S. cotton production forecast changed marginally in two of the Cotton Belt regions, while the other two regions were adjusted 6 percent or more. The crop estimate for the Delta and West were nearly unchanged at about 5.4 million bales and 1.2 million bales, respectively.
In the Southwest, where the crop estimate improved 535,000 bales, the crop is forecast at 7.8 million bales, including a record yield estimate of 764 pounds per harvested acre. In contrast, October's forecast for the Southeast indicated a decline of 180,000 bales, as production there is just shy of 3 million bales and the lowest since 1993/94.
Total cotton harvested area remains estimated at 10.5 million acres for 2007. Despite being the smallest cotton area harvested since 1989, this season's growing season has produced one of the largest harvested-to-planted ratios on record.
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