World cotton trade in 2007 is forecast slightly higher than in 2006, at 40 million bales. However, compared with 5 years earlier, world cotton trade has grown by one-third, a 10 million bale increase. The structure of world trade has changed substantially as well over that time, as China's textile industry has come to dominate global spinning.
Changes in world cotton trade have largely paralleled changes in consumption. World cotton consumption is forecast to climb 5 percent from the year before in 2007, to 130 million bales. Since 2002, this is a 32 percent, or 31-million-bale, increase.
Similarly, world supplies of cotton also have kept pace. In 2007, the sum of cotton production (120 million bales) and unaccounted cotton (4 million bales), is essentially unchanged from the year before and is 35 million bales higher than in
2002.
The big change since 2002 is China's role in world consumption. In 2002, China accounted for 30 percent of world consumption, and a 42 percent share is forecast for 2007. This has had profound implications for the structure of world trade. In 2002, China had just returned to the first-ranked position among world importers after a significant hiatus, and its 3 million bales of imports accounted for 10 percent of world trade.
Although China was the largest importer, its share of world trade was not significantly different from those garnered by Mexico and Turkey. Since 2002, China's investment in textile capacity has soared. In 2006, 28 percent of world cotton trade was accounted for by China's imports.
In 2007, China is forecast to import 15 million bales of cotton, and its share of world trade is expected to rise to 37 percent. This would be fout times the share of the world's next largest importer, Turkey. After decades of alternating between importing and exporting, China has grown to become the dominant force in world cotton imports.
Cotton Council International
marketing@alchempro.com
