The 2007/08 U.S. cotton forecasts include higher production, lower exports, and higher ending stocks relative to last month. Production is raised 708,000 bales to 18.9 million, due mainly to an increase in Texas. Domestic mill use is unchanged. Exports are reduced 500,000 bales to 16.2 million due to recent sluggish sales and shipments and lower imports by China.
Ending stocks of 7.6 million bales are 19 percent above last month. The revised stocks-to-use ratio is 36.5 percent. Revisions were made in U.S. 2005/06 and 2006/07 exports this month to adjust for likely duplication in accounting for 2005/06 end-of-season shipments. U.S. exports for both years now reflect the levels included in USDA's U.S. Export Sales report. These adjustments do not affect ending stocks.
This month's world cotton supply and demand forecasts show lower production and consumption, higher trade, and marginally lower ending stocks compared with last month. Production is reduced nearly 1.0 million bales as lower production in Pakistan, Sudan, and Turkey is partially offset by higher production in the United States and Uzbekistan.
Consumption is reduced in India as the strengthening currency is slowing textile exports. At the same time, recent Pakistan government data indicate that Pakistan's consumption growth in 2006/07 and 2007/08 is stronger than previously estimated. World trade is raised slightly as significantly higher imports by Pakistan are partly offset by lowerimports by China.
Cotton Council International
marketing@alchempro.com
