Real GDP grows at 3.9% annual rate in third quarter
22 Nov '07
4 min read
LEADING INDICATORS: Three of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in October. The positive contributors – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were stock prices, real money supply, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials.
The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were building permits, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), index of consumer expectations, vendor performance, average weekly manufacturing hours, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods, and interest rate spread.
The leading index now stands at 136.9 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in September and decreased 0.9 percent in August.
During the six-month span through October, the leading index decreased 0.5 percent, with five out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50 percent). The next release is scheduled for December 20, 2007, Thursday at 10 A.M. ET.
COINCIDENT INDICATORS: Three of the four indicators that make up the coincident index increased in October. The positive contributors to the index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were employees on nonagricultural payrolls, personal income less transfer payments, and manufacturing and trade sales. The negative contributor was industrial production.
The coincident index now stands at 125.1 (1996=100). This index increased 0.2 percent in September and increased 0.2 percent in August. During the six-month period through October, the coincident index increased 0.9 percent.
LAGGING INDICATORS: The lagging index stands at 129.9 (1996=100) in October, with five of the seven components advancing.
The positive contributors to the index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were commercial and industrial loans outstanding, change in CPI for services, change in labor cost per unit of output, ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales and ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income.
The negative contributors – beginning with the larger negative contributor – were average duration of unemployment (inverted) and average prime rate charged by banks. Based on revised data, the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in September and increased 0.3 percent in August.
marketing@alchempro.com
