Among foreign mill users, the largest gains in 2007/08 are seen in the major producing countries of China (5 million bales higher) and India (1.1 million). China is expected to contribute over 80 percent of the global increase in cotton mill use in 2007/08 and, at 55 million bales, China will account for nearly 43 percent of world cotton mill use.
As foreign mill use exceeds production by more than 10 million bales, 2007/08 global trade in raw cotton is forecast to increase from last season. World cotton trade is projected at 41.1 million bales this season, compared with 37.6 million in 2006/07. With major foreign producers also major spinners of raw cotton, the United States is projected to supply most of the increase in global trade in 2007/08.
Foreign shipments are expected to rise 1 percent to 24.9 million bales or 61 percent of world trade in 2007/08. Foreign imports are forecast at 41.4 million bales, 11 percent above 2006/07.
U.S. cotton production in 2007/08 is forecast at nearly 18.9 million bales, 13 percent below 2006/07 but greater than earlier anticipated. Planted area was reduced nearly 30 percent from 2006/07 due to competing crop price expectations at planting time. U.S. cotton plantings were at their lowest since 1989/90.
However, abandonment was at a 60-year low this season due to favorable growing conditions across much of the Cotton Belt, particularly in the Southwest. U.S. harvested area reached only 10.5 million acres in 2007/08, but a record yield of 859 pounds per harvested acre pushed cotton production higher.
United States Department of Agriculture
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