This morning's USDA supply and demand estimates could best be described as categorically bearish, both in the US and in foreign estimates.
In the US the beginning stocks were raised 100,000 bales, production raised310,000 bales, consumption dropped 200,000 as were exports. US ending stocks were raised 800,000 bales to 5.4MB.
In China beginning stocks were raised 2.35MB, production increased 1MB, import and consumption dropped 1MB with ending stocks rising nearly 4MB to 15.14MB.
US stocks/use ratio is now 25.3 percent whilst world stocks/use is now 43.2 percent.
Technically the December contract is still mired in a 3 month long down trend channel, however today's session attempted to stabilize prices around the 48.00 lows, bouncing back into the trend channel having been in massively oversold territory.
The momentum indicators have bounced off oversold levels, whilst all trend following indicators remain bearish.
To the upside a close above the 9 day exp. Average is critical to stabilize prices further. Until then the downtrend continues in tact.
marketing@alchempro.com
