Export losses of $305 bn expected in 2025: Allianz Trade Global Survey

Before the so-called ‘Liberation Day’, when US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs against nearly all trading partners in early April, only 5 per cent of companies anticipated such a drop.

Positive export forecasts with expected revenue increases have more than halved, falling to just 40 per cent. Allianz Trade chief executive officer Aylin Somersan Coqui said that globally, export losses of $305 billion are expected in 2025.

The credit insurer surveyed 4,500 exporters in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, the United Kingdom, the United States, Singapore, and China about global trade in March and April.

The responses became noticeably more pessimistic following Trump's announcements. In Germany, 39 per cent of respondents expect a decline in their export revenues.

Meanwhile, some of the new tariffs against the European Union (EU) and China have been put on hold to allow 90 days for negotiations. With new deals, Trump aims to put trade relations with numerous countries on a new footing. "The big stockpiling is likely entering its second round now," said Allianz Trade expert Jasmin Groschl.

"In the coming months, companies will try to export as much as they can—and at the same time, fill their own warehouses with goods needed for their own production and business," she noted.

Twenty-four per cent of German companies reported that they had already started this process before the US election in November 2024. Many more firms became active after the election.

Some companies may resort to drastic measures. In Germany, 34 per cent of surveyed firms said they are considering a temporary halt to production. This is especially the case in industries that are heavily dependent on imported intermediate goods. Globally, the figure stands at 27 per cent.

According to Groschl, smaller suppliers could be forced out of the market, while larger corporations might be able to weather such measures. "However, such a step is likely to be taken only in extreme cases," he noted.

Nearly half of respondents worldwide expect an increased risk of payment defaults—especially in the United States, Italy and the United Kingdom.

In Germany, 37 per cent anticipate deteriorating payment discipline, and 34 per cent expect more payment defaults.

To cope with their own higher costs, 38 per cent of companies globally said they intend to pass them on to customers. This intention is particularly strong in the United States, at 54 per cent. German exporters are more cautious, with only 32 per cent planning price increases. In fact, 17 percent in Germany even plan to lower prices to maintain market share.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)