This marks only the second October in the past decade to record a MoM decline, underscoring continued importer caution amid shifting trade and economic conditions and likely frontloading activity that occurred earlier in the year as importers adjusted to evolving tariff timelines, according to Canadian logistics technology company Descartes.
The 0.1-per cent MoM drop in import volumes in October diverged from the typical MoM increase observed in eight of the past ten years. While October is one day longer and has no major holidays, this year’s divergence likely reflects importer sensitivity to tariff uncertainty and shifting policy timelines.
On a year-to-date basis, volumes for the first ten months of 2025 are just 0.9 per cent up YoY. The year-to-date growth margin has steadily narrowed throughout the year—from nearly 10 per cent in January to now less than 1 per cent in October—suggesting that suspected frontloading earlier in the year, softer economic conditions, and slower consumer demand has steadily slowed momentum.
China-origin imports rose by 5.4 per cent MoM, posting a modest recovery over declines in September and August; however, volumes were 16.3 per cent down YoY as importers remain cautious in response to evolving tariff policies.
Port transit delays increased slightly across most major gateways, reflecting routine seasonal variation but no signs of systemic congestion as ports maintained stable throughput.
Carriers continue to avoid the Red Sea corridor, routing around the Cape of Good Hope and extending Suez-linked schedules by up to two weeks.
The US-China trade framework, finalised in early November, lowers tariffs by 10 percentage points and suspends Chinese retaliatory measures, easing short-term uncertainty, but leaving long-term structural issues unresolved, Descartes noted.
ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)
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