World goods trade growth set to moderate as barometer index dips: WTO

The overall barometer index fell to 101.8 for September—down from 102.2 in June and below the quarterly trade volume index representing actual merchandise trade developments through Q2.

The barometer, which typically predicts trade developments two to three months ahead, also remains above its baseline value of 100, which suggests that trade volume is likely to grow slower in the fourth quarter, but remain above trend, a WTO release noted.

Barometer values over 100 are associated with above-trend trade volumes, while values less than 100 suggest that goods trade has either fallen below trend or will do so soon.

While still above trend, the indices for air freight (102.7) and container shipping (101.7) have seen their values decline over the last three months, indicating a cooling off in the transportation of goods worldwide.

The forward-looking new export orders index (102.3) surpassed the baseline value of 100 in the second quarter following some earlier volatility, pointing to sustained momentum in global exports. On balance, the indices point to a moderation in the pace of global trade growth.

Merchandise trade in H1 2025 recorded stronger than expected growth—up by 4.9 per cent year on year (YoY)—but higher tariffs and lingering trade policy uncertainty are expected to weigh on growth in H2.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)