Developing economies led the expansion, driven by rising South–South trade, while softer import activity in the United States weighed on the global average. UNCTAD forecasts sustained momentum through the third quarter, with goods trade expected to grow by about 2.5 per cent and services by around 4 per cent.
Manufacturing remained the primary engine of growth. Prices for traded goods began to climb in Q2, with a sharper rise expected in Q3, indicating that price increases may soon play a greater role than volumes in fuelling trade growth.
Global trade imbalances narrowed in the second quarter following shifts in United States trade policy. China’s trade surplus edged lower, the European Union’s also declined, while deficits widened in Japan, India, and the United Kingdom.
UNCTAD’s nowcast projects continued resilience, with trailing four-quarter growth at about 5 per cent for goods and 6 per cent for services. Risks persist from United States policy uncertainty, geopolitical instability, and renewed protectionism in response to overcapacity. Nonetheless, stronger economic growth, potential monetary easing, and resilient services trade are expected to keep global trade on an upward trajectory through the year’s end, added the report.
ALCHEMPro News Desk (SG)
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