Jun 2025 US logistics managers' index up 1.3 points MoM to 60.7

The increase in the overall index was driven by an increase in the rate of expansion for inventory levels, which was up by 8.3 points to 59.8.

This expansion mostly occurred in the first half of June, when the metric read in at a robust 67.4 as importers scrambled to take advantage of the pause in the most punitive tariffs, an official release said.

The movement back above 60 marks only the third time since July 2022. All three of those readings above 60 have come in 2025, which is a marked shift from 2023 and 2024 when that threshold was never breached in the overall index.

The fact that all three of those readings have come in the last six months is indicative of the heightened, and somewhat unseasonal, level of activity that has been witnessed in the supply chain through the first half of 2025. While this has been positive in the short-run, it does raise questions on whether the same level of demand will be present in the second half of the year when we would normally see it picking up, the release observed.

The uncertainty exists due to both the high levels of inventory already in the U.S., as well as the continued ambiguity regarding future U.S. trade policy.

Inventory levels expansion declined to 52.2 in the second half of the month. The influx of inventories led inventory costs to rise by 2.5 points to 80.9, the first time this metric has been above 80 since October 2022, when supply chains were still in the throes of the post-COVID inventory bullwhip, an official release said.

The effects of the continued inventory buildup are also evident in warehousing capacity dropping by 2.2 points to 47.8, contracting for the first time since January 2023.

Similar to last month, the LMI transportation metrics are relatively stable, although it is worth noting that transportation capacity dropped by 2.3 points to 52.4, which is close to contraction. Transportation capacity has not contracted since March 2022, and therefore, if this trend continues, it would mark a real shift.

Transportation utilization (plus 0.3) and transportation prices (minus 1.1) were relatively steady. The swings seen with inventories have kept freight markets humming at a steady, if not spectacular pace, the release noted.

The most direct evidence of the strain of the high levels of inventories being held in supply chains can be seen in warehousing capacity, which was down by 2.2 point to 47.8. This is the first time this metric has been in contraction since January 2023.

The contraction in available capacity is driven by smaller respondents, who reported steep contraction at 43.3 to the mild expansion of 53.2 reported by their larger counterparts. Due to this, smaller firms also reported warehousing prices expanding faster than larger respondents at a rate of 71.7 to 64.9.

Warehousing utilisation expansion was down very slightly (minus 0.3) to 62.2 in June. It was statistically significantly higher upstream, where respondents reported expansion of 65.7 in stark contrast with the 53.8 reported downstream.

This is likely reflective of the fact that downstream firms were already utilising much of their available capacity and upstream firms are taking on most of the new inventory that is being imported into the country.

Despite this difference, both groups of respondents predicted strong growth for warehousing prices at 69.9 upstream and 65.2 downstream. These figures are fairly consistent with current warehousing pricing, which is expanding at a rate of 68.3—still high but down (minus 3.8) from May’s reading.

Researchers at Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Florida Atlantic University, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, and in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) issue the LMI report.

The LMI score is a combination of eight unique components that make up the logistics industry: inventory levels and costs, warehousing capacity, utilisation, and prices, and transportation capacity, utilisation, and prices.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)