Overcapacity headache to get worse for carriers in 2026: Xeneta

Carriers have demonstrated their ability to manage capacity effectively, but different tactics deployed on different trades makes life more difficult for shippers in understanding these market dynamics in 2026, the Norway-based ocean and air freight rate benchmarking and market analytics platform said.

Carriers from the Far East to the United States are taking an aggressive approach on the US-bound fronthauls, seemingly targeting market share rather than higher rates.

Carriers have taken an aggressive approach on major trades into the US East and West Coasts, but there is an obvious difference between the two—the scale of the offered capacity increases, Xeneta said.

Offered capacity into the US East Coast is up 35 per cent year on year (YoY), but into the US West Coast it is down slightly at 2 per cent.

The US East Coast is less exposed than the US West Coast when it comes to US-China geopolitics.

Carriers are taking a different strategy from Far East into Europe, seemingly prioritising keeping freight rates elevated over market share.

If carriers want to manage capacity effectively on trade, they either need to demolish, idle or deploy those vessels elsewhere, remarked Xeneta. Idle fleet remains below 1 per cent now and only 5,000 TEU of capacity has been demolished so far this year. Instead, ships are being re-deployed onto new trades, and one of the trades often chosen is the Transatlantic from North Europe to US East Coast.

Carriers will change their tactics as the game evolves, and the more cynical observer may suspect the capacity management on European trades is timed to keep rates elevated as shippers are entering tender season, Xeneta noted.

Next year may see the tables turn more in the favour of shippers given the overcapacity, but carriers will do all they can to maximise volumes and rates; shippers need to be ready or they risk leaving money on the table in their 2026 freight agreements, it added.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)