US import cargo slowdown to deepen in 2026: NRF

Import cargo volumes at major US container ports are expected to extend their year-over-year (YoY) declines into 2026 as tariffs and prolonged trade policy uncertainty weigh on retailer sentiment, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

The outlook contrasts with the NRF’s forecast for record holiday sales exceeding $1 trillion for the first time, rising between 3.7 per cent and 4.2 per cent over 2024.

Ports tracked by the report handled 2.07 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in October, though Charleston data is still pending. The total was 1.8 per cent lower than September and 7.9 per cent below the same month last year.

November volumes are projected at 1.91 million TEU, down 11.6 per cent YoY, while December is forecast to fall 12.7 per cent to 1.86 million TEU. After July’s peak of 2.39 million TEU, the final two months of the year would be the slowest of 2025, with December marking the weakest month since June 2023.

“Stores are stocked up and ready for a record holiday season but there is still a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen in 2026 with trade policy. Regardless of what develops, retailers will adjust their supply chains accordingly and strive to ensure that consumers have affordable options when they shop,” NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said.

The sharp declines are partly attributed to inflated late-2024 imports, when retailers front-loaded cargo amid fears of port strikes, as per Global Port Tracker. A similar pattern emerged this year as companies moved goods earlier than usual to sidestep tariff risks, NRF said in a release.

Despite the slowdown, the first half of 2025 reached 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7 per cent YoY. Full-year 2025 imports are projected at 25.2 million TEU, edging 1.4 per cent below 2024’s 25.5 million TEU.

Cargo is expected to break a six-month declining streak in January, with a forecast of 2 million TEU, though this would still be 10.3 per cent lower YoY. Forecasts point to continued softness: 1.86 million TEU in February (down 8.5 per cent), 1.79 million TEU in March (down 16.8 per cent), and 1.97 million TEU in April (down 10.9 per cent).

“We are seeing the results of the tariffs in weakening cargo demand going forward from the fourth quarter of this year and likely into the first half of next year. Container shipping rates are already declining on both coasts due to less need for cargo space for goods from both Asia and Europe,” Hackett said.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (HU)