3 GDP growth scenarios for 2024 projected by Vietnam; peak at 6.5%

20 Sep '23

2 min read

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Insights

Vietnam's ministry of planning and investment recently unveiled three potential economic growth scenarios for next year, projecting the peak GDP growth rate at 6.5 per cent.
Growth is predicted to rise by 6 per cent in the moderate scenario.
Growth is projected to range between 6 per cent and 6.5 per cent in the third scenario; the ministry favours this.

Vietnam’s ministry of planning and investment recently unveiled three potential economic growth scenarios for next year, projecting the peak gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate at 6.5 per cent.

These projections are part of the government's socio-economic development strategy between 2021 and 2025, and endeavours to meet the 2023 growth goal of 6.5 per cent.

In the first scenario, which presumes that global growth will be moderate this year and the resurgence of global trade and investment will continue to face hurdles, Vietnam's GDP is predicted to rise by 6 per cent.

Though robust growth may be witnessed in the domestic market and services sector, the import, export, and industrial production sectors may not experience a marked recovery due to their reliance on global market demand, a Vietnamese media outlet reported.

Under the second scenario, the ministry envisages a GDP growth of 6.5 per cent, assuming that both the global and regional economies rebound quicker than international organisations' predictions. This scenario also considers a surge in demand, trade and investment.

The domestic market would likely experience revivals in demand, production, business activities, exports, investment and foreign direct investment influx concurrently.

The GDP growth is projected to range between 6 per cent and 6.5 per cent in the third scenario, reflecting predictions of swift changes in both global and domestic contexts. The ministry favours this.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)

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