Home breadcru News breadcru Policy breadcru Business activity in Australia rebounds in Jan: NAB

Business activity in Australia rebounds in Jan: NAB

15 Feb '23
2 min read
Pic: Shutterstock
Pic: Shutterstock

The National Australia Bank (NAB) foresees the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifting rates to a peak of 4.1 per cent in May, including 25 basis points increases at each of the next three meetings. Business conditions picked back up in January after three months of easing in late 2022, returning to a high level at 18 index points, the NAB monthly business survey for January showed.

The rise was led by very strong trading conditions in the month; but both profitability and employment are also well above average, NAB said in a release.

“….We continue to expect strong prints for wages and inflation to continue in the near term,” NAB noted.

“A cash rate peak above 4 per cent will have a significant impact on economic growth, and we expect GDP to be below 1 per cent over both 2023 and 2024 despite the more optimistic near-term outlook. We also expect the RBA will need to cut interest rates in 2024 to closer to neutral to support growth as inflation moderates,” NAB said.

Manufacturing was one of the sectors that led the improvement in business conditions, though conditions also remain strong in the retail sector.

“Overall, the survey suggests the economy has remained resilient to headwinds from inflation and higher interest rates. Demand has remained elevated, likely supported by strong population growth, and concerns about global growth prospects appear to have eased,” NAB added.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)

Get Free Weekly Market Insights Newsletter

Receive daily prices and market insights straight to your inbox. Subscribe to AlchemPro Weekly!