Cautious optimism for coming months in Bangladesh govt's econ outlook

The October 2025 report, released by the general economics division (GED) of the Planning Commission, says measures such as lowering the interest rates on national savings certificates, enhancing digital financial inclusion through e-money and agent banking, and routing government cash transfers via banks have contributed to this trend.

Strong remittance inflows have also bolstered deposit growth, while upcoming election-related activities are expected to inject temporary dynamism into the economy and boost investors' sentiment.

Inflation rose marginally in September, reaching 8.36 per cent compared to 8.29 per cent in August. Inflation has followed a rigid pattern since August 2022, averaging 9.56 per cent over the past 38 months.

Foreign exchange reserves have steadily recovered, rising from $ 25.5 billion in March to $ 31.4 billion in September 2025. This reflects a stabilizing balance of payments, supported by higher export earnings, moderated import payments and stable remittances.

These signal a strengthened external position and effective exchange rate management by Bangladesh Bank, the GED observed.

After several months above the $4-billion mark, exports slowed to $ 3.63 billion in September, down from $ 3.92 billion in August and $ 4.77 billion in July. The slowdown was attributed primarily to seasonal factors and a dip in readymade garment (RMG) shipments.

Non-RMG sectors like jute goods, leather and light engineering products, however, continued to perform steadily, mitigating the overall decline. Cumulative export earnings for July-September 2025 remained higher year on year (YoY).

As of August 2025, total deposits in the banking system grew by 10.01 per cent YoY, while broad money expanded by 7.78 per cent. Revenue collection has picked up pace as well.

Collection of value-added tax showed the strongest performance, rising by 33.8 per cent YoY, followed by a 24 per cent increase in income tax. Customs revenue, however, declined by 4.5 per cent YoY.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)