Euro area surplus shrinks, EU swings to trade deficit in January 2025

The euro area’s trade surplus with the rest of the world dropped significantly in January 2025, falling to €1.0 billion (~$1.09 billion) from €10.6 billion (~$11.52 billion) in January 2024, according to the first estimates of Eurostat.

The decline was driven by a sharp rise in imports, which grew by 7.6 per cent year-on-year to €231.5 billion (~$251.63 billion), outpacing the 3.0 per cent growth in exports, which reached €232.6 billion (~$252.83 billion).

Compared with December 2024, the euro area’s surplus fell dramatically from €15.4 billion (~$16.74 billion). The drop was largely due to declines in two key product categories. The trade balance for machineries and vehicles fell from €16.5 billion (~$17.93 billion) in December 2024 to €7.4 billion (~$8.04 billion) in January 2025, while other manufactured goods shifted from a €1.2 billion (~$1.30 billion) surplus to a €4.6 billion (~$5 billion) deficit.

For the full year 2024, the euro area recorded a total trade surplus of €173.8 billion, a significant increase from the €57.4 billion surplus in 2023. Total exports for 2024 rose slightly by 0.5 per cent to €2.86 trillion, while imports fell 3.6 per cent to €2.69 trillion. Intra-euro area trade, however, declined 2.9 per cent to €2.57 trillion, as per Eurostat.

Across the wider European Union, the trade balance swung into deficit in January 2025, recording a €5.4 billion shortfall compared with a €6.7 billion surplus in January 2024. Exports increased 4.4 per cent to €208.7 billion, while imports surged 10.9 per cent to €214.1 billion.

The EU’s deficit also widened sharply compared to December 2024, when it posted a €15.9 billion surplus. The main contributors to the decline were machineries and vehicles, whose trade balance dropped from €19.1 billion in December 2024 to €9.0 billion in January 2025, and other manufactured goods, which saw a shift from a €1.7 billion surplus to a €7.8 billion deficit.

For the entire year 2024, the EU recorded a trade surplus of €147.0 billion, a major improvement from the €34.4 billion surplus in 2023. Total exports increased by 1.1 per cent to €2.58 trillion, while imports fell 3.4 per cent to €2.44 trillion. Intra-EU trade declined 2.2 per cent to €4.03 trillion.

Seasonally adjusted data for January 2025 showed a 2.1 per cent increase in euro area exports, while imports rose 2.3 per cent, causing the trade surplus to dip slightly to €14.0 billion from €14.2 billion in December 2024. In the EU, seasonally adjusted exports grew by 2.0 per cent, but imports rose 3.2 per cent, leading to a trade surplus of €10.1 billion, down from €12.3 billion in December 2024.

Over the past three months, euro area exports increased 2.7 per cent, while imports rose 1.2 per cent. In the EU, exports grew by 3.1 per cent, with imports rising 1.5 per cent compared with the period from August to October 2024.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (HU)