Short-term inflation expectations among US consumers fall: Apr survey

Labour market expectations deteriorated slightly, with unemployment expectations and perceived job loss risk increasing and job finding expectations decreasing. Perceptions and expectations of credit conditions were mixed.

Median inflation expectations declined by 0.3 percentage point at the one-year-ahead horizon to 4.4 per cent, but increased by 0.1 percentage point at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons to 2.9 per cent and 2.6 per cent respectively.

The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents declined at the one- and five-year-ahead horizons, and remained unchanged at the three-year-ahead horizon.

The uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes increased at the three-year-ahead horizon and remained unchanged at the one- and five-year-ahead horizons.

Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth remained unchanged for the fourth consecutive month at 3 per cent. The series has been moving between a narrow range of 2.8 per cent to 3.0 per cent since September 2021, an official release said.

The mean probability that the US unemployment rate will be higher a year from now increased by 1.1 percentage point to 41.8 per cent—above its 12-month trailing average of 40.2 per cent.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)