Nominal GDP expanded by ₹38.6 lakh crore to ₹237 lakh crore, or 19.5 per cent annualised. In fiscal 2022-23 as well, as inflation remains elevated in the first half, nominal GDP will grow by 16.1 per cent to ₹275 lakh crore, he said in a report.
The economy grew by 8.7 per cent in FY22. The report is optimistic because of the rising corporate revenue and profit and the growing bank credit coupled with ample liquidity in the system.
On rising corporate growth, the report notes that in FY22, around 2,000 listed companies reported 29 per cent top line growth and 52 per cent jump in net profit over the previous year.
On the liquidity front, the report expects the central bank to be supportive of growth by only gradually hiking repo rates, but mostly frontload it in June and August with a 50 basis points repo hike and 25 basis points cash reserve ratio hike in the forthcoming June policy.
The Reserve Bank of India is likely to raise the repo rate cumulatively by 125-150 basis points over the pandemic level of 4 per cent, a news agency reported.
The central bank may also increase the CRR cumulatively by another 50 basis points, after raising it by 50 basis points in the last monetary policy which will lead to absorption of ₹1.74 lakh crore from the market on durable basis (₹87,000 crore absorbed earlier).
Given the higher crude prices, trading over $120 a barrel, the report sees inflation averaging at 6.5-6.7 per cent in FY23.
ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)
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