The Conference Board forecasts US recession between Q4 2023, Q1 2024

The LEI was down by 4 per cent over the six-month period between January and July—a slight deterioration from its 3.7 per cent contraction over the previous six months, i.e., July 2022 to January 2023.

“The US LEI—which tracks where the economy is heading—fell for the sixteenth consecutive month in July, signaling the outlook remains highly uncertain” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, business cycle indicators, at The Conference Board, in a release.

“On the other hand, the coincident index (CEI)—which tracks where economic activity stands right now—has continued to grow slowly but inconsistently, with three of the past six months not changing and the rest increasing. As such, the CEI is signaling that we are currently still in a favorable growth environment,” she said.

“However, in July, weak new orders, high interest rates, a dip in consumer perceptions of the outlook for business conditions, and decreasing hours worked in manufacturing fueled the leading indicator’s 0.4 per cent decline,” she said.

“The leading index continues to suggest that economic activity is likely to decelerate and descend into mild contraction in the months ahead. The Conference Board now forecasts a short and shallow recession in the Q4 2023 to Q1 2024 timespan,” she added.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)