The Conference Board leading economic index for US falls 0.3% in Aug

"The US LEI declined for a sixth consecutive month potentially signaling a recession," Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director, economics, at The Conference Board.

"Among the index's components, only initial unemployment claims and the yield spread contributed positively over the last six months—and the contribution of the yield spread has narrowed recently," he said.

"Economic activity will continue slowing more broadly throughout the US economy and is likely to contract. A major driver of this slowdown has been the Federal Reserve's rapid tightening of monetary policy to counter inflationary pressures. The Conference Board projects a recession in the coming quarters," he was quoted as saying in a press release from the think tank.

The ten components of LEI for the US are average weekly hours in manufacturing; average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance; manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials; ISM index of new orders; manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders; building permits for new private housing units; S&P 500 index of stock prices; leading credit index; interest rate spread (10-year treasury bonds less federal funds rate); and average consumer expectations for business conditions.

The Conference Board coincident economic index (CEI) for the country rose by 0.1 per cent in August to 108.7, after increasing by 0.5 per cent in July. The CEI rose by 0.6 per cent over the six-month period from February to August, slower than its growth of 1.5 per cent over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board lagging economic index (LAG) for the country increased by 0.7 per cent in August this year to 115.4, following a 0.4 per cent increase in July. The LAG is up by 4.4 per cent over the six-month period from February to August, faster than its growth of 2.5 per cent over the previous six-month period.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)