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Turkish central bank lifts inflation forecasts for 2023, 2024

04 Nov '23
2 min read
Pic: Adobe Stock
Pic: Adobe Stock

Insights

  • The Turkish central bank has revised up its year-end inflation forecasts for 2023 and 2024, and pledged to continue gradual monetary tightening.
  • It expects the consumer price index to end this year at 65 per cent, up from its August estimate of 58 per cent.
  • The projection for next year has been raised to 36 per cent from 33 per cent in the earlier estimate.
The Turkish central bank (CBRT) recently revised up its year-end inflation forecasts for this year and the next, and pledged to continue gradual monetary tightening. CBRT expects the consumer price index (CPI) to end this year at 65 per cent, up from its estimate of 58 per cent in the inflation report three months ago.

The inflation rate would fluctuate between 62 per cent and 68 per cent till 2023 end, CBRT governor Hafize Gaye Erkan told a news conference to release this year’s inflation report for the last quarter.

Inflation increased to 61.53 per cent in the 12 months leading up to September, the highest level this year.

"Getting high and volatile inflation under control will be a long and difficult process. We will continue to use all tools available in a determined way to ensure disinflation," she said.

Inflation hit a 24-year peak of 85 per cent last year and surged increased in recent months.

"We are aware that we will make the greatest contribution to social welfare by providing price stability. Therefore, through the strong monetary tightening we initiated in June, we are steadfastly combating inflation," she stressed.

The projection for next year has been raised to 36 per cent from 33 per cent in the previous such report.

Monetary tightening would continue until there was a visible improvement in inflation, Erkan said.

The government aims for the disinflation process to begin in the second half of 2024, she noted.

The bank cut its forecast for 2025 to 14 per cent from 15 per cent earlier. The government expects it to fall to 15.2 per cent in 2025, before dipping further to 8.5 per cent by the end of 2026.

The central bank raised its policy rate by 500 basis points to 35 per cent last week, tightening aggressively for a third straight month as it steps up efforts to rein in inflation.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)

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