UK annual private sector output price inflation stable in Sept

Sixty-nine per cent of respondents reported that uncertainty for their business was ‘high’ or ‘very high’ at the moment, 6 percentage points higher than in August.

Uncertainty relating specifically to the conflict in Ukraine also increased in September, with the percentage of respondents citing the conflict as a top-three source of uncertainty up 10 percentage points from August.

Uncertainty relating to Brexit and COVID decreased in September, with the percentage of respondents ranking these as a top three source of uncertainty, down 1.4 and 0.8 percentage points respectively.

Expected year-ahead annual output price inflation was 6.6 per cent in the three months to September, up from 6.5 per cent the previous month; the single month data was also 6.6 per cent, 0.2 percentage points higher than in August.

Over the 12 months to September, average cost growth was unchanged from the August survey, at 9.8 per cent.

Over the next 12 months, firms expect unit cost growth to be 9.1 per cent, on an average, up from 8.3 per cent in August.

Perceptions of current price index (CPI) inflation averaged at 10.2 per cent in September, up from 9.6 per cent in August. CPI inflation is expected to be 9.5 per cent a year ahead, up from 8.4 per cent in the August survey, and 4.8 per cent in three years’ time.

The panel was set up in August 2016 by the Bank of England along with academics from Stanford University and the University of Nottingham. It was designed to be representative of the population of UK businesses.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)