Home breadcru News breadcru Policy breadcru US inflation expectations rise slightly for short-term horizon: Survey

US inflation expectations rise slightly for short-term horizon: Survey

12 Oct '23
2 min read
Pic: Shutterstock
Pic: Shutterstock

Insights

  • US inflation expectations rose for one- and three-year horizons but dropped for the five-year outlook, as per a September 2023 survey.
  • Meanwhile, median earnings growth expectation increased slightly, with unemployment expectations also rising.
  • Concerns about job losses declined, with older respondents being more optimistic about finding new employment.
US’ median inflation expectations rose at the one- and three-year-ahead horizons by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, standing at 3.7 per cent and 3 per cent, according to the September 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data.

However, there was a notable decline at the five-year-ahead horizon, with expectations dropping by 0.2 percentage point to 2.8 per cent. Interestingly, while there was reduced disagreement among respondents about the one-year-ahead horizon, differences in opinions grew at the three- and five-year horizons. Concurrently, there was a slight increase in uncertainty about future inflation across all periods under consideration, as per the survey.

In terms of labour market projections, there was a mild increase in the median earnings growth expectation for the upcoming year, moving by 0.1 percentage point to 3 per cent. This figure has hovered between 2.8 per cent and 3 per cent since September 2021. Meanwhile, average unemployment expectations edged up by 1.6 percentage points to reach 40.1 per cent, aligning with its 12-month average. People's perceived chances of job loss in the forthcoming year saw a decline, while their optimism about finding a new job, should they lose their current one, increased, particularly among those above the age of 60.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DP)

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