US recession risk under 50% in 2024: NABE survey

Ninety-one per cent of respondents now assign a 50 per cent or less probability to the US entering a recession over the next 12 months, a notable increase from 79 per cent in the October survey. Conversely, only 9 per cent of panellists believe a recession is more likely than not, decreasing from 18 per cent in the previous survey.

The survey also shows positive developments in sales, with more panellists reporting rising sales and fewer reporting declines compared to the October 2023 survey. The net rising index (NRI) for sales has surged to 37 in January, up from 6 in October, marking the highest level since April 2022, during the post-COVID-19 recovery phase.

Additionally, the NRI for profit margins has moved into positive territory for the first time since April 2022, standing at 10, a 30-point increase from the October survey.

However, there has been an increase in the share of panellists reporting falling prices at their firms. The NRI for prices charged is 23, down from 27 in October and the lowest since January 2021.

Furthermore, the survey highlights that 72 per cent of respondents are passing all or some of their cost increases to customers, up from 65 per cent in the October survey. In contrast, the proportion of panellists not passing on cost increases has decreased to 23 per cent from 29 per cent.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DP)