US retail imports set new record in single month: NRF

US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.04 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in October, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was up 9 per cent from September and up 13.6 per cent year-over-year. A TEU is one 20-foot-long cargo container or its equivalent.

The October number was the highest for a single month since Global Port Tracker began counting cargo in 2000, topping the previous record of 1.9 million TEU set in July, which in turn had beat a record of 1.83 million TEU set in August 2017.

November was estimated at 2.01 million TEU, a 14 per cent year-over-year increase that would have been a new record if not for the October number. December – normally a slow month with holiday merchandise already on the shelves – is forecast at 1.83 million TEU, up 6.1 per cent year-over year. The numbers would bring 2018 to a total of 21.8 million TEU, an increase of 6.5 per cent over last year’s record 20.5 million TEU.

Both year-over-year growth rates and total volume are expected to slow considerably in January, when 10 per cent tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese products that took effect in September this year, had been scheduled to increase to 25 per cent. But US president Donald Trump recently announced after a meeting with Chinese president Xi that the increase in tariffs on all Chinese products would be put on hold while the two countries conduct 90 days of negotiations. Official action to delay the tariff increase is yet to be announced.

January 2019 forecast stands at 1.72 million TEU, down 2.1 per cent from January 2018, February at 1.67 million TEU, down 1 per cent year-over-year, March at 1.57 million TEU, up 1.7 per cent; and April at 1.7 million TEU, up 3.7 per cent.

“President Trump has declared a temporary truce in the trade war, but these imports came in before that announcement was made,” said NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold. “We hope that the temporary stand-down becomes permanent, but in the meantime there has been a rush to bring merchandise in before existing tariffs go up or new ones can be imposed. China’s abuses of trade policy need to be addressed, but tariffs that drive up prices for American families and costs for US businesses are not the answer.”

“We see a significant slowdown in import growth in 2019 as the market adjusts to higher prices due to the Trump tariffs and the impact on consumer and industry confidence going forward,” said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett. “We project that imports at our monitored ports will have grown significantly in 2018 but that there will be no import growth in the first half of 2019 compared with the same period in 2018.”

While cargo numbers do not correlate directly with sales, the imports are also being driven by this year’s strong retail sales. NRF has forecast that 2018 holiday season retail sales – excluding automobiles, restaurants and gasoline stations – will increase between 4.3 per cent and 4.8 per cent over last year. Retail sales for all of 2018 are forecast to be up at least 4.5 per cent over 2017. (PC)

ALCHEMPro News Desk – India