Dutch economic outlook deteriorates further in Nov 2023

Ten out of 13 indicators in the tracer in November were performing below their long-term trend. The tracer monitors the state and the cycle of the Dutch economy.

Dutch consumers were less negative in November than in the previous month. However, confidence was still far below the long-term average over the past two decades. Producers were also less negative than in October, with confidence remaining below the 20-year average as well.

According to CBS’ first quarterly estimate, the volume of gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.2 per cent in Q3 this year relative to Q2. This is the third consecutive quarter with contraction.

In Q1 and Q2 this year, GDP fell by 0.5 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively. The contraction in Q3 can mainly be attributed to declining investments in fixed assets and a decline in inventory changes.

In September this year, the total volume of goods exports (adjusted for number of working days) was down by 4.8 per cent year on year (YoY).

The average daily output of the country’s manufacturing industry was 10.3 per cent lower YoY in September. Output also contracted YoY in the preceding months this year. Relative to August, such output fell by 0.9 per cent in September, CBS said in a release.

For the fifth consecutive quarter, there were fewer unfilled vacancies than in the previous quarter. At the end of the third quarter (Q3), there were 416,000 unfilled vacancies, 12,000 fewer than at the end of Q2.

In October, unemployment fell to 3.6 per cent of the labour force. It was still 3.7 percent in September, which means that the slight increase in unemployment over the past six months did not continue.

On average over the past three months, the number of unemployed remained roughly the same, ending at 361,000 in October.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)