Maersk sees stress signals below early-year calm in US freight market

“The recent demand surge in the spot market isn’t necessarily a sign of lasting growth. More likely, it reflects a short-term spike driven by reactive shipping decisions—and a broader shift away from contract commitments as shippers hedge against market swings,” wrote Moritz Reinhard, Maersk supply chain insights and trends researcher, on its website.

“But in freight, stillness often signals compression, not calm. And those who’ve weathered enough cycles know: freight markets don’t always shout before they shift,” he noted.

Smart US shippers aren’t waiting for volatility to make itself obvious; they are reading the signals, anticipating market shifts and adjusting their freight strategies before lead times, capacity and costs do it for them, he said.

A growing share of that shipment volume is moving through the spot market, and not contracts, indicating reactive, not resilient, demand.

Contract load volumes have declined for seven consecutive months—a clear sign that shippers are losing confidence in the demand stability. They’re pulling back from long-term commitments in favour of lane-specific, short-term spot moves, Reinhard wrote.

“This isn’t demand driven by growth. It’s a reactive market pricing in caution and compressing margins as a response against sudden tariff announcements, cross-border order reshuffles, and inventory realignment,” he noted.

If Q1 2025 was marked by early-year optimism and front-loaded planning, Q2 is defined by risk hedging, strategic recalibration and sharper execution, he said.

“Shippers are trading long-term stability for short-term flexibility—not because it is strategic, but because the signals ahead are too foggy to commit. This isn’t confidence-led freight. It’s cautious, fragmented and volatile. And if the current signals hold, this could be the last quarter before reactive behavior begins translating into upward pressure on rates and lead times,” he projected.

The US freight market is recalibrating—faster than most contract cycles can adjust. It’s tightening with fewer trucks, more selective carriers and limited price relief, he added.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)