Global Cotton Trade to Continue Rebound in 2010/11
World cotton trade in 2010/11 is forecast at 38.0 million bales, up 7 percent from a year ago. Export forecasts for Australia and India are significantly revised from last month's forecast due to developments in those countries. In Australia, 2010/11exports are forecast at 3.0 million bales, up 25 percent from the previous month's forecast and 19 percent from a year earlier as production gains are expected to boost Australia's exports in 2010/11 to their highest level in 5 years.
For India, authorities have announced a reinstatement of the cotton export cap, which is expected to lower 2010/11 exports. India's 2010/11 exports are forecast at 5.0 million bales, down 23 percent from the previous month and 24 percent from the preceding year. The United States, the world's leading exporter of cotton is expected to export 15.5 million bales, up 29 percent from a year ago. Brazil's 2010/11 exports are forecast to rise 11 percent from the previous year; however, Brazil's net trade is likely to fall as mills procure more cotton from foreign suppliers. Uzbekistan's cotton exports in 2010/11 are forecast to decline 1 percent from a year ago to 3.75 million bales.
On the import side, China the leading global cotton importer is forecast to import 12.8 million bales in 2010/11, up 16 percent from the previous year. Indonesia and Pakistan are forecast to import 2.1 million bales and 1.8 million bales in 2010/11, an increase of 1 percent and 27 percent, respectively, from the previous year. For South Korea and Turkey, 2010/11 imports are forecast to decline 1 percent and 21 percent to 1.0 million bales and 3.4 million bales, respectively.
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
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