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Trade on the brink: How finance is reshaping global growth

21 Dec '25
9 min read
Trade on the brink: How finance is reshaping global growth
Pic: Shutterstock

Insights

  • UNCTAD warns global trade is increasingly exposed to financial volatility, with over **0** per cent reliant on credit, currencies and payment systems.
  • Global growth is projected to ease to *.* per cent in 2025–26.
  • Higher borrowing costs, climate risk premiums and financialised food trade are amplifying systemic risks for developing economies and weakening long-term resilience.

That mismatch matters most for developing economies, which are doing more of the world’s real-economy heavy lifting, and carrying more of its financial and climate risk. UNCTAD’s warning is less about a single crash than about a system that repeatedly pushes shocks from finance into trade, and from trade into development prospects, until “normal” volatility becomes a permanent tax on growth.

A slowing world economy, with weakness baked into ****

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