World trade vol up 5.3% in Q1 2025 as imports up in North America: WTO

The growth was stronger than the WTO’s most recent forecast, but WTO economists expect the pace of expansion to slow later in the year as fully stocked inventories and higher tariffs weigh on import demand.

WTO's Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report on April 16 had projected a baseline forecast of 2.7-per cent growth in world trade in 2025.

Meanwhile, the US dollar value of world merchandise trade—as measured by non-seasonally-adjusted exports—was up by 4 per cent YoY in Q1 2025, reflecting strong growth in volume terms and declining prices, a WTO release said.

The value of trade in the first quarter was down compared to the previous quarter due to regular seasonal variation, but seasonally-adjusted figures continued to rise.

There were significant disparities across regions in merchandise trade volume growth in the first quarter, especially on the import side.

North America recorded the strongest QoQ import growth of any region by far at 13.4 per cent, followed by Africa at 5.1 per cent, South and Central America and the Caribbean at 3.6 per cent, the Middle East at 3 per cent, Europe at 1.3 per cent and Asia at 1.1 per cent.

The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including certain associate and former member states, was the only region to record a 0.5-per cent decline in Q1 2025.

On the export side, the Middle East recorded the strongest QoQ growth at 6.3 per cent, followed by Asia at 5.6 per cent, South America at 3.2 per cent, Africa at 2.5 per cent, Europe at 1.9 per cent and North America at 1.8 per cent. The CIS region also registered an export decline of 1 per cent in the first quarter.

Africa had the strongest merchandise export growth of any region in value terms in Q1 2025—up by 9 per cent YoY. It was followed by Asia—up by 5 per cent YoY, and South and Central America—up by 4 per cent YoY.

Among the WTO regions, only the CIS saw its exports decline in value, by 6 per cent YoY.

On the import side, strong YoY increases in dollar value were observed in North America (plus 19 per cent YoY) and South America (plus 12 per cent YoY).

Asia's first quarter merchandise imports increased the least amongst the regions (1 per cent), apart from the 0.1-per cent decline in the CIS region.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)