Australian cotton production forecast at 0.5 mn bales
24 Aug '07
4 min read
Cotton Production: Australian cotton production for the 2007/08 season is forecast at 500,000 (0.5 million) bales, or approximately 113.5 TMT. This forecast represents a significant fall from previous estimates and reflects the lack of rainfall since early July.
Post estimates that about 60,000 hectares will be planted to cotton in 2007/08 and has assumed a yield of around 8.32 bales per hectare (1.89 MT/hectare). According to historical ABARE data, a planted area of 60,000 hectares if achieved would represent the smallest cotton planted area in Australia since 1978/79. Estimated production for 2006/07 remains unchanged at 1,100 bales, or 250 TMT.
General: At the time of writing this report, harvest for the 2006/07 cotton crop is complete and planting of the 2007/08 crop will likely occur from mid-September to mid-October. Cotton planted after mid-September is typically lower yielding. Sources advise that growers are now in the process of preparing for planting and purchasing seed.
As the vast majority of Australia cotton is grown under irrigation, the primary driver of production remains the availability of irrigation water. Rainfall in the catchment areas and to a lesser extent the growing areas, during September and October will be critical to improving cotton production prospects. Post has assumed average rainfall for September and October.
Key industry sources believe the opportunity for the Australian cotton industry to recover from drought in 2007/08 has already passed. Typically, the months of September and October are not likely to provide the type of weather conditions (drought breaking) which would see production prospects greatly improve.
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