UOB reaffirms Vietnam's growth forecast at 6% for 2025, 6.3% for 2026

A UOB report projected Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) would expand by 6.1 per cent in the second quarter (Q2) and 5.8 per cent in Q3 this year.

Vietnam’s real GDP growth in Q1 2025 slowed to 6.93 per cent year on year, below the bank’s earlier estimate of 7.1 per cent and the 7.55 per cent recorded in the previous quarter.

The slowdown was partly attributed to the Lunar New Year holidays, but was cushioned by resilient trade and investment activity, a Vietnamese media outlet reported.

However, market sentiment in April was dominated by the April 2 announcement by the United states of sweeping new tariffs under the so-called ‘Liberation Day’ policy.

Vietnam’s National Assembly had earlier targeted at least 8-per cent growth this year and aimed for double-digit growth between 2026 and 2030.

Several risks were also flagged by the bank, particularly from international trade tensions. UOB analysts highlighted Vietnam’s vulnerability to external shocks, given its export-driven economy.

Exports account for approximately nine-tenths of the country’s GDP, and around 30 per cent of those are meant for the United States. Key sectors such as furniture, apparel and footwear are particularly exposed.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)