US economy to continue growing: Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee

Meanwhile, labour markets picked up strength at the end of the first quarter, recovering from storm-ridden January. As of March, private-sector employers added 325,000 jobs during the first two months of the Donald Trump administration. 

The anticipated slowdown in hiring has been gradual, unemployment rates remain relatively stable and the headline labour force participation rate (LFPR) stabilised in Q1 2025.

Total payroll job growth slowed to an average 152,000 per month during the first quarter of 2025, after accelerating to an average 209,000 per month during Q4 2024. 

Overall, US labour markets remained healthy in Q1 2025: labour supply was relatively strong and demand stabilised.

In addition, inflation reads for February and March were favourable owing to downward pressures from energy prices and core goods, as well as significantly slower inflation for key core consumer services. 

Consumer price index-based inflation for energy goods and services declined in Q1 2025—the third quarterly decline of the past four quarters—after turning positive during Q4 2024. Monthly prices fell 0.4 per cent on an average during Q1 2025.

Monthly core CPI inflation was 0.2 per cent per month on average in Q1 2025, and on an annualised basis, it was 3 per cent in the quarter, marginally slower than the 3.1 per cent rate in Q4 2024. 

Over the twelve months to March 2025, the core inflation rate slowed to 2.8 per cent—down by 3.8 percentage points from the post-pandemic peak rate in September 2022.

On balance, economic data for the first quarter illustrated the US economy is poised to continue growing while seeing inflation return to its pre-pandemic target.

In the first 100 days of President Trump’s second term, the administration has pursued an agenda of driving economic growth supported by private-sector demand, bringing down inflation, controlling federal spending and restoring fairness in US trade relationships, a release from the treasury department noted.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)